Photo : 80 REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
16 May 2022, Monday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #202
War in Ukraine: Day 80 & 81
By Rishma Banerjee
War On The Ground
On 14 May, one of Ukraine’s regional governors, Oleh Sinegubov said that their forces have succeeded in launching a counteroffensive near Izium, where the Russian forces have taken over. He said: “The enemy is retreating on some fronts and this is the result of the character of our armed forces." This comes in the context of a possible momentum shift in the war, in favour of Ukraine, whereby they are recapturing territory in the northeast in Kharkiv.
On the same day, a large convoy of cars and vans reached Zaporizhzhia. It was carrying refugees from the port city of Mariupol, which has been under severe attack from the Russians. Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke about the grave situation in the Donbas region, where the Russian forces were still trying to establish their supremacy.
On 15 May, Zelenskyy congratulated Kalush Orchestra, the Ukrainian band that won the Eurovision competition. In a Telegram post he said: “Our courage impresses the world, our music conquers Europe! Next year Ukraine will host Eurovision!”
The governor of Lviv, Maxim Kozitsky said that four missiles had struck hit military infrastructure in the Yavoriv area of western Ukraine, near to the Polish border.
The foreign minister of the country, Dmytro Kuleba elaborated on his meeting with the U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken. He said that they have agreed to work closely together in order to ensure that Ukrainian food exports reach consumers in Africa and Asia.
The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia
On 14 May, a senior parliamentarian from Russia, Anna Kuznetsova, visited Kherson, in Ukraine. Her visit to Kherson which has been occupied by Russian forces was to discuss the social and healthcare needs of the local population. Kuznetsova who is the deputy head of Russia's Duma or lower house of parliament discussed the supply of foodstuffs as well as medical and essentials necessary for children.
The Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov spoke about the ‘total hybrid warfare’, that is allegedly being waged by the West. He also said Moscow will survive the embargoes and sanctions by building a better and deeper relationship with China, India and others. He was talking about the 80th day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
On 14 May, Russia’s defence ministry published a few pictures of a ship, which Ukraine’s forces were alleging had been destroyed by them. Dismissing Ukraine’s claims, the ministry said that the ship, in the Crimean Black Sea port of Sevastopol had not suffered any damage at all.
On the same day, president Vladimir Putin Russian spoke with Finland’s president, Sauli Niinisto. This was to discuss Finland’s decision to apply for a NATO membership. Kremlin said that Putin has pointed out to Niinisto that abandoning their neutrality and joining NATO will be a mistake and it would affect their bilateral relationship negatively. President Vladimir Putin told his Finnish counterpart Sauli Niinisto on Saturday that ditching neutrality and joining NATO would be a mistake that could damage relations between their two countries, the Kremlin said.
The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe
On 15 May, Finland and Sweden who have been contemplating their application for a NATO membership for quite some time confirmed that they will go through with the application. This marks a major policy shift, in response to the Russian invasion, as both the countries have historically been neutral.
The prime minister of Sweden, Magdalena Andersson also said that they will be seeking broad support for an application to join NATO on Monday. This was significant because it marked her a change in the party's stance as well.
The US Embassy in Kyiv tweeted a Ukrainian military video of Kyiv's soldiers training to use the M-777 howitzer. These weapons are a part of the recent USD 800 million care package from the US. It was also mentioned that 89 of the 90 Howitzers had reached Ukraine and several of them are also being used at the front lines.
The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 14 May, Ibrahim Kalin, a spokesperson for turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that he had discussed carrying out a sea evacuation of wounded fighters holed up in Mariupol.
In their meeting in Germany, the foreign ministers from the G7 countries spoke about how the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the subsequent blockade of ports is increasing the food security crisis in the world. They warned that around 43 million people will starve to death unless Russia lifts their blockades.
On 14 May, they also reiterated that they will enforce Russia's economic and political isolation and continue providing aid to Ukraine be it military or economic, 'as long as necessary.'
References
Tom Balmforth, “Ukraine presses counteroffensive on key Russian line of assault, governor says,” Reuters, 14 May 2022
“Troops defending Kharkiv reached Russian border, Ukraine says,” Reuters, 16 May 2022
Gleb Garanich and Leonardo Benassatto, “Large convoy from Mariupol reaches safety, refugees talk of 'devastating' escape,” Reuters, 14 May 2022
Sam Jones, “Zelenskiy hails Ukraine’s Eurovision win and plans to ‘one day’ host final in Mariupol,” The Guardian, 15 May 2022
“Ukraine's top diplomat meets Blinken, touts more weapon supplies,” Reuters, 15 May 2022
Jonathan Landay and Tom Balmforth, “Battle rages for Ukrainian region of Donbas,” Reuters, 16 May 2022
“Ukraine's Zelenskiy: situation in Donbas region remains very difficult,” Reuters, 15 May 2022
“Missiles destroy military infrastructure in western Ukraine near Polish border, governor says,” Reuters, 15 May 2022
“Duma deputy head visits Ukraine's Russian-occupied Kherson, RIA reports,” Reuters, 14 May 2022
“Russia forges new partnerships in face of West's 'total hybrid war,' Lavrov says,” Reuters, 14 May 2022
“Russia denies Ukraine forces damaged navy ship in Black Sea,” Reuters, 15 May 2022
“Putin tells Finland that swapping neutrality for NATO is a mistake,” Reuters, 14 May 2022
Daniel Boffey, “Russia’s Black Sea blockade pushing millions towards famine, G7 says,” The Guardian, 14 May 2022
“Top Senate Republican meets Zelenskiy, Russia says U.S. involvement dangerous,” Reuters, 15 May 2022
“Britain says Russia has lost a third of its forces in Ukraine,” Reuters, 15 May 2022
Niklas Pollard and Simon Johnson, “Sweden to seek broad support for NATO membership,” Reuters, 15 May 2022
Jon Henley, “Finland and Sweden confirm intention to join Nato,” The Guardian, 15 May 2022
“Ukraine has deployed new U.S. howitzers at front lines - embassy,” Reuters, 15 May 2022
“Turkey has offered sea evacuation for wounded Ukrainian fighters, Erdogan adviser says,” Reuters, 14 May 2022
Alexander Ratz and John Irish, “G7 to continue economic pressure on Russia, tackle 'wheat war',”Reuters, 15 May 2022
IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav
GERMANY
Conservatives and Greens win elections in the most populous state
On 15 May, Christian Democrats and the Greens are said to win the state elections held in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state. The projections by public broadcaster Westdeutscher Rundfunk (WDR) placed incumbent state premier Hendrik Wüst's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in first place with 35.7 per cent of the vote. Chancellor Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD), who presently govern the country in a coalition with the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP) secured second place with 27 per cent. In contrast, the FDP, which has governed in North Rhine-Westphalia as part of a CDU-led coalition, is expected to drop seven points. The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) failed to make it into the state legislature, only garnering 4.4 per cent of the vote. (Hans Von Der Burchard, “Conservatives and Greens win in key German state election,” Politico, 15 May 2022)
GENDER
Demonstration against abortion in Croatia
On 15 May, thousands came together in protest against the abortion law in Croatia. The demonstration gathered to support a woman who was refused an abortion despite being diagnosed with foetal abnormalities. Following the increased public outrage Croatian health authorities gave permission to terminate the foetus. She had to go to Slovenia for the procedure as the availability is decreasing in the country. Croatians being catholic and conservative have voices for their opinions against abortion. Abortion is legal after ten weeks if it poses any threat to the mother or the foetus health. The law which was passed during the communist Yugoslavian era is now being defenestrated due to increasing pressure from influential conservative and religious groups in the country. Many doctors refuse to perform abortion as a matter of conscience. (“Croatia abortion: Thousands protest against termination,”BBC, 15 May 2022)
Italy gradually limits its abortion access and rights
On 13 May, an article in Politico reports that Italy is discreetly restricting abortion access in a campaign fueled by the US’s dramatic culture war over reproductive rights. Regional healthcare authorities have been funding anti-abortion organizations in hospitals and clinics. Some municipal governments have even provided monetary rewards to women who cancel their abortion arrangements. The US Supreme Courts descion to likely tear down their constitutional right to abortion has fueled anti-abortion activists in Italy. Mario Adinolfi, the leader of Popolo della Famiglia, a conservative Christian anti-abortion movement, said his organisation was "ready to ride the wave from the United States, in a vigorous war against the right to kill a kid in the womb." (Hannah Roberts, “Italy slowly erodes abortion access, riding US wave,” Politico, 13 May 2022)
MARITIME
Concerns raised over the vulnerability of Endurance to plundering
On 15 May, a marine archaeologist, Mensun Bound who discovered the wreckage of Sir Ernest Shackleton’s Endurance, warns that its protection may be harmed by global warming and underwater robotic technology that can plunder the historic site. The Shackleton ship was discovered in March, creating polar history by solving one of the world's great nautical mysteries. It is in such excellent condition preservation that elements like the bell and steering wheel can be seen clearly. He raised concerns that ocean acidification and melting ice would make it easier for illegal incursions by rogue organizations. He added that if underwater robotic systems progress to the point where they may be programmed from afar to move "invisibly" beneath the ice of the Weddell Sea, it would make the ship more vulnerable. (Dalya Alberge, “Endurance shipwreck threatened by global heating, says marine archaeologist,” The Guardian, 15 May 2022)
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Super blood moon is observed on lunar eclipse in 2022
On 15 May, BBC news reported a rare occurrence of a super blood moon was witnessed during this year's only full lunar eclipse. In this event, the earth comes in between the sun and the moon which slowly darkens the latter before turning dusky red. The event where the natural satellite will appear unusually nearer to earth as it will be its closest point to the planet giving rise to the name super moon. The surface of the moon gets a reflection of all the sunrises and sunsets on earth turning the colour of the light blood red. Europe gets to see this phenomenon on Monday early morning however the Americas can witness it on Sunday evening as the moon rises. The event can be witnessed through naked eyes while the clarity of the red colour would be better through binoculars or a small telescope. (Georgina Rannard, “Full lunar eclipse to bring super blood Moon,” BBC, 15 May 2022)
THE UK
Prime minister Boris Johnson is set to change the Northern Ireland protocol
On 16 May, the UK prime minister Boris Johnson is planning to visit Belfast to encourage the restoration of Northern Ireland's government. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has refrained from nominating ministers to the assembly as well as for the position of vice-chair due to the Northern Ireland protocol issue. Even though Johnson himself signed the post-Brexit treaty, he agreed for amendments in it. A majority of those who won the recent Northern Ireland assembly election accepted the protocol including Sinn Féin but were opposed by DUP. If the UK act unilaterally it might cause retaliation and eventually a trade war from the European nations which concerns a lot of people in this cost of living crisis. All the other Northern Ireland leaders consider this a priority to restore the government at Storment. Sir Jeffrey Donaldson of DUP has said that he will remove the block of the formation of the Northern Ireland assembly after the UK resolved the issue with the EU. (“Northern Ireland: PM poised for protocol change ahead of crisis talks,” BBC, 16 May 2022)